The United Nations expects the world economy to expand by 2.7% in 2026, a modest step down from the 2.8% estimate for 2025, citing the drag from higher U.S. tariffs, uncertainty, and geopolitical strains. The UN’s projection still points to an underpowered global recovery, remaining below the 3.2% average growth recorded from 2010 to 2019.
Looking ahead, UN economists anticipate growth could inch up to 2.9% in 2027. Even with that improvement, they signal that the global pace would remain weaker than the pre-pandemic norm.
Tariff shock, but activity held up
UN economists said the global economy showed “unexpected resilience” after sharp U.S. tariff increases, helped by firm consumer demand and easing inflation. At the same time, they warned that deeper fragilities have not disappeared, including subdued investment and limited fiscal space in many economies.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres said a mix of economic, geopolitical, and technological pressures is remaking the international environment and creating fresh uncertainty and social vulnerabilities. He also cautioned that many developing economies are still struggling, putting progress on global development goals further out of reach.
Regional picture stays uneven
The UN expects growth in Europe, Japan, and the United States to be broadly steady, though the details vary by economy. In the United States, growth is projected at 2.0% in 2026, up slightly from 1.9% in 2025, supported by monetary and fiscal easing even as a softer labor market could weigh on momentum.
Japan is forecast to grow by 0.9% in 2026, below the 1.2% estimate for 2025, while the European Union is projected at 1.3% in 2026 versus 1.5% in 2025, with higher U.S. tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty dampening exports. In East Asia, growth is expected at 4.4% in 2026, down from 4.9% in 2025, and China is projected to expand by 4.6% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027 after an estimated 4.9% in 2025, with a partial easing in trade tensions helping stabilize confidence.
