The domestic box office is heating up after a lull in the fall, as analysts predict the winter movie slate could push 2025’s total ticket sales past the $9 billion mark, setting a post-pandemic record.
Following a sizzling summer of action-packed blockbusters, theatrical momentum slowed during the fall months. But with major releases lined up for the holiday season, industry experts are projecting strong growth for the final quarter of the year.
“The box office year-to-date domestically is running about 4% ahead of last year, and if we can expand on that lead, we could be looking at the biggest post-pandemic year for movies,” said Paul Dergarabedian, head of marketplace trends at Comscore.
As of now, the domestic box office has accumulated $6.5 billion in ticket sales in 2025, up from $6.3 billion during the same period in 2024. Analysts are eyeing the full-year record of $9.05 billion, set in 2023, as the benchmark for this year.
Industry observers point to Disney’s Tron: Ares as the first major release expected to ignite the holiday season. It will be followed by Universal’s Wicked: For Good and Disney’s Zootopia 2, both of which are projected to surpass $250 million in domestic ticket sales. The year is set to culminate with James Cameron’s highly anticipated Avatar: Fire and Ash.
“Fall typically sees its ups and downs, but the trifecta formed by Wicked: For Good, Zootopia 2, and Avatar: Fire and Ash during the holiday season cannot be overstated in its significance,” said Shawn Robbins, director of analytics at Fandango and founder of Box Office Theory. “Plenty of other films will contribute to the aggregate numbers as crucial counter-programmers and mid-range tentpoles.”
Additional releases expected to bolster fourth-quarter revenue include Universal’s Black Phone 2, Disney and 20th Century Studios’ Predator: Badlands, Paramount’s The Running Man, and Universal’s Five Nights at Freddy’s 2.
Eric Handler of Roth Capital Partners estimates that the fourth-quarter box office could reach $2.5 billion, a 7% increase from the same period last year. If realized, that would bring the full-year 2025 total to approximately $9.1 billion, a 5% gain over 2024. Macquarie analysts are even more optimistic, projecting a $2.7 billion fourth quarter and a full-year tally of $9.2 billion.
Looking beyond 2025, Macquarie expects continued growth in 2026, fueled by spillover from Avatar: Fire and Ash and a robust slate of tentpole releases and popular intellectual properties. Upcoming highlights include The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, The Mandalorian and Grogu, Toy Story 5, Minions 3, Moana, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Avengers: Doomsday, and Dune: Part Three.
With a combination of franchise powerhouses, seasonal crowd-pleasers, and mid-range offerings, the box office is poised to demonstrate the resilience of theatrical cinema in the post-pandemic era.
